Tackling the Population at Exodus

This is my first real attempt at trying to assume, guesstimate, and rationalize population numbers for post exodus (as opposed to my pseudo attempts previously)

The most difficult thing I am stumbling against is the logic of large space arcs being available for upwards of 10,000 people (or up to 50,000 or more! in my previous thoughts). There are a number of issues I have with this, but I am trying to make it plausible in my own way. I just can't see how they could escape Terra's pull carrying that many people and using elevators is a very slow means of evacuating hundreds, let alone thousands of people in a panic (with rocks falling down).

I want to stay away from Noah's idea, but a space arc is a space arc.....I do like the imagery here of the guards implicitly telling many humans that animals are more important...

Anyway, I used 'some' method of calculating how many of these space arcs and played around with it. Originally Nick mentioned a few billion made it off (leaving 75% or about 8-9 billion to perish) but I just can't accept that figure, being way too high and optimistic (geez, I thought I was optimistic!).

So I started thinking and came up with a carrying capacity of around 10,000 per vessel (assuming they were all made in the spirit of United Nations for ease of calculations) and that each nation / corp could have or would have a few on hand for emergencies and or basic exploration.

After the final tally was calculated, I had 81 space arcs ready for take off, each carrying 10,000 plus 1,000 to 4,000 each (I figured in the hysteria people would clog on, but there would be limits). I then assumed that a few would not make it, being destroyed by debris, lunar pieces or overloading or sabotage(?) and came up with 9 biting it, as well as about 8 being damaged, meaning that the carrying capacity was lessened.

This battle space arc has full specs if you click on the pic, but it only holds 4,500 people....

This one seems something more along the lines I was thinking; just basically a storage unit/hotel. Very basic design, but then again, how the heck did this thing leave the atmosphere?

I also tried to calculate the amount of humans already off world on Luna and Mars and that seemed like a stretch as well. This is important since if over 800,000 people somehow do manage to escape Terra and head to Mars, how the hell is a Martian colony going to help them when they are just barely getting by in limited space, resources and numbers?

Yeah, this is going to either take some work to tweak more or to suspend logic a bit and just let the story go. But damnit, I do want something at least plausible.....

Here are more numbers from my calculations:

How many made it off Terra in 2084 and after? Space Arcs had a basic model design: could hold up to 10,000 people (but many were overloaded causing problems); where most would be put in ‘storage’, as well as space for animals and plants needed for sustenance. Off Terra: 823,000; Total living in space: 951,000

Country/Corp	Space Arcs	Space Stations	Private Ships	Space Bases
Latania Confederacy	Probable (funded by FSA and UEC) Ships: 2 – 24,000		Unlikely
Mohammedan Arabica	Probable Ships: 3 (1 destroyed) – 23,000		Unlikely
Moscovia	Definite Ships: 10 (1 destroyed) - 116,000		Definite – Many Tot off: 13,000
Nippon	Definite Ships: 3 – 37,000		Definite – Myriad Tot off: 36,000
The Cannan Foundation	Definite Ships: 7 – 84,000		Unlikely
The Federated States of America	Definite Ships: 15 (1 destroyed, 2 damaged) – 157,000	Terran orbit (international in theory, but reality is US): Pop: 1000 Mars orbit (with EU, Jap and Russia): Pop: 400	Definite – Many Tot off: 10,000	Luna 5 bases: Lincoln, New Washington, Horizon, Lookout, Echo: Tot Lunar Pop: 8,500 Mars 1 base: Unity Base (with EU, Jap and Russia) Pop: 1,500
The Indus Corporation	Definite Ships: 9 – 111,000		Definite – Some Tot off: 4,000
The People's Incorporated of China	Definite Ships: 21 (4 destroyed, 6 damaged) – 162,000	Terran orbit (with India’s assistance): Pop: 2000 Mars orbit (with India’s assistance): Pop: 2000	Unlikely	Mars 7 bases: Jade Mt, Harmony, Endurance, Great City, New Shanghai, Heavenly Palace, People’s Station: Tot Mars Pop: 45,000
The Republican Territories of Africa	Probable (funded by FSA and UEC, as well as Arabia) Ships: 5 (1 destroyed) – 47,000		Unlikely
The United European Colonies	Probable Ships: 6 (1 destroyed) – 62,000		Definite – Some Tot off: 5,000

Regardless, I assume I will be revising this again at some point, perhaps many times. With such a devastating event, I really did want to see what had happened. But whoa, 10,000,000,000 (~) people down to about 1,000,000. That is terrifying! But that does not take into account the resilient survivors on Terra, of which I calculated at 600,000,000. Even this figure would decrease in the aftermath....

What a month in May 2084!

May this never happen, eh?